Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 7 months. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.
Thus, the red dots signal a recession.Ībout The Conference Board Leading Economic Index ® (LEI) for the U.S.: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The red dotted line is drawn at the threshold value (measured by the median, -4.2 percent) on the months when both criteria are met simultaneously. The 3D’s rule provides signals of impending recessions 1) when the diffusion index falls below the threshold of 50 (denoted by the black dotted line in the chart), and simultaneously 2) when the decline in the index over the most recent six months falls below the threshold of -4.2 percent. Diffusion is a measure of how widespread the decline is (i.e., the diffusion index of the LEI ranges from 0 to 100 and numbers below 50 indicate most of the components are weakening). Duration and depth are measured by the rate of change of the index over the last six months. Duration refers to how long-lasting a decline in the index is, and depth denotes how large the decline is. Note: The chart illustrates the so-called 3D’s rule which is a reliable rule of thumb to interpret the duration, depth, and diffusion – the 3D’s – of a downward movement in the LEI. The US LEI still signals recession over the next 12 months Most components contributed negatively to the LEI The annual growth rate of the US LEI continued to decline signaling weak GDP growth ahead The LAG is up 0.9 percent over the six-month period from October 2022 and April 2023, down significantly from its growth rate of 4.0 percent over the previous six months. (2016 = 100), after remaining unchanged in March. decreased by 0.1 percent in April 2023 to 118.3 The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. While recent trends in manufacturing activity and industrial production have been weak, employment and income growth remain positive. The CEI’s component indicators-payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing trade and sales, and industrial production-are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. The CEI is now up 0.7 percent over the six-month period between October 2022 and April 2023-down from the 0.9 percent growth it recorded over the previous six months. increased by 0.3 percent in April 2023 to 110.2 (2016=100), after rising by 0.2 percent in March. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Importantly, the LEI continues to warn of an economic downturn this year. Only stock prices and manufacturers’ new orders for both capital and consumer goods improved in April. “Weaknesses among underlying components were widespread-but less so than in March’s reading, which resulted in a smaller decline. “The LEI for the US declined for the thirteenth consecutive month in April, signaling a worsening economic outlook,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. The LEI is down 4.4 percent over the six-month period between October 2022 and April 2023-a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months (April–October 2022). declined 0.6 percent in April 2023 to 107.5 (2016=100), following a decline of 1.2 percent in March. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for theU.S. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. Declines Again in AprilĪbout the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index: The Conference Board publishes leading, coincident, and lagging indexes designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle for major economies around the world.
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